Report

Space Threat Assessment 2024

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By Clayton Swope, Kari A. Bingen, Makena Young, Madeleine Chang, Stephanie Songer, Jeremy Tammelleo
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Welcome to the seventh edition of Space Threat Assessment by the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). For the last six years, CSIS has used open-source information to produce an annual assessment of threats to U.S. national security space systems posed by foreign government capabilities. Each report in this series catalogs yearly trends, uses, and advancements of counterspace weapons and enablers to provide policymakers and the public with accessible insights into the global space threat landscape.

This year’s assessment covers the growing space and counterspace capabilities of China, Russia, India, Iran, North Korea, and other nations. For more detail on past counterspace weapons tests, including historical tests by the United States and the Soviet Union, please review the prior Space Threat Assessments (editions 2018–2023) or visit the Aerospace Secu­rity Project’s interactive online timeline at https://aerospace.csis.org/counterspace-timeline/.

 

This report is made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report. Aerospace 

About the Authors

Clatyon Swope's headshot
Clatyon Swope's headshot

Clayton Swope is the deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Before joining CSIS, Swope led national security and cybersecurity public policy for Amazon’s Project Kuiper, an initiative to increase global broadband access through a constellation of satellites in low Earth orbit. While at Amazon, he also worked on cloud policy issues. Prior to his time at Amazon, Swope served as a senior adviser on national security, space, foreign affairs, and technology policy issues for a member of the U.S. House of Representatives. He also worked for more than 14 years at the Central Intelligence Agency, serving largely in the Directorate of Science and Technology. He holds a bachelor of science in mechanical engineering from the University of Notre Dame.

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Kari A. Bingen is the director of the Aerospace Security Project and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). She joined CSIS from HawkEye 360, an innovative space technology company creating a new class of radio frequency (RF) data and analytics, where she was the chief strategy officer. Prior to the private sector, Kari served as the deputy undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security, overseeing the defense intelligence and security enterprises, comprising more than 120,000 personnel and an annual budget of over $54 billion. Before that, Kari served as the policy director on the House Armed Services Committee and staff lead for its Strategic Forces Subcommittee, advising members of Congress on defense policy, program, and budget matters. Prior to entering government, Kari specialized in national security space issues, working with U.S. defense and intelligence community clients, first as a space systems analyst at SRA International’s Adroit C4ISR Center, and then as a senior space policy analyst at the Aerospace Corporation. In addition to her work at CSIS, Kari is an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University, was a commissioner on the CSIS Technology and Intelligence Task Force, and serves on a number of corporate and nonprofit advisory boards. She graduated from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with a degree in aeronautics and astronautics.

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Makena Young is a fellow with the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where her research interests include international collaboration, space security, and orbital debris. Prior to joining CSIS, Ms. Young worked for the Federal Aviation Administration as an Aerospace Engineer, focusing on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast certification and integration in small aircraft. She holds a B.S. in Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering from Purdue University with minors in International Relations and Environmental Engineering.

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Madeleine Chang joined the Aerospace Security Team at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) through the Horizon Fellowship, a yearlong program designed to bring subject matter experts in emerging technologies into the policy world. Before CSIS, she worked at Lockheed Martin as a satellite software engineer within the National Security Space business area. In the past, Madeleine has worked in liquidity risk management at Goldman Sachs and galaxy evolution research at the American Museum of Natural History. Her research interests include de-escalation and deterrence, norm-setting, and public international law. Madeleine holds a Master of Engineering Management and a dual BA in Computer Science and Astronomy from Cornell University.

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Stephanie Songer was a research intern with the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. Her research interests include space diplomacy, international politics, and space sustainability. Prior to joining CSIS, Ms. Songer was an intern at the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. She holds an MA in international public affairs from Central European University and a BA in linguistics from Temple University.

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Jeremy Tammelleo was a research intern with the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. He is interested in the intersection of space, policy, and science, technology, engineering, and math. His research focused on tactically responsive space, space security operations, and export controls. He is currently a research intern in the Space Division at BryceTech. Before joining CSIS, Mr. Tammelleo conducted his master’s thesis consulting with the U.S. Space Force on policy recommendations to reach the goals of its tactically responsive space program. He holds a Master in Public Policy from the Harvard Kennedy School and a BA in economics and political science from the University of Massachusetts Boston.

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